research & prospecting

Evaluating Opportunity Using Search Volume (SV)

Estimating Demand Before Estimating Spend

Before campaign structure, budgets, or bids are ever discussed, I start with a simpler question:

Is this practice area commercially viable in this market? And at what scale?

Search volume is the first signal I use to answer that question. Not as a vanity metric, but as a way to:

Validate real demand at the state, DMA, or MSA level
Estimate baseline investment requirements
Identify which practice areas can scale, should be considered opportunistic, or should be excluded altogether.

The examples included on this page demonstrate how I evaluate using market-specific keyword data, blended CPC benchmarks, and geographic segmentation. This allows me to forecast relative opportunity before a single dollar is spent, helping me to prevent firms from over-investing in low-ceiling areas, or under-investing in high-intent categories that quietly drive revenue.

From Raw Volume to Strategic Insight

To reiterate, we're using raw volume as an entry point, not a conclusion.

Once baseline demand is established, I layer in market-specific CPCs, intent signals, case-value realities by practice area, and competitive density / saturation risk.

SV data for MA-based personal injury law firm (2025)

SV data for AL-based SSDI & VA disability law firm (2022)

Interpreting Demand Through Trends

Geography, Seasonality, and Signal Stability

Search volume snapshots tell you if demand exists. Trends tell you how that demand behaves over time and across markets.

Once baseline opportunity is confirmed, I analyze geographic and temporal patterns to understand whether demand is (1) stable vs volatile, (2) localized vs broadly distributed, and (3) cyclical vs seasonal vs event-driven.

This step helps prevent false confidence based on static averages and ensures campaign decisions reflect how people actually search — not how tools summarize them.

Seasonal trends for VA disability (TDIU) (2022)

Seasonality, Cycles, and Signal Reliability

Trend analysis also helps distinguish real opportunity from temporary noise.

Rather than reacting to short-term swings, I look for:

consistency across multiple time windows
alignment between short-term and YoY movement
seasonal patterns tied to real-world behavior, not anomalies

Modest fluctuation is normal. Sharp deviations — especially when unsupported by YoY context — warrant investigation, and not necessarily immediate action.

This ensures that growth decisions are grounded in durable demand, not momentary spikes that disappear once campaigns are live.

Geographic Concentration & Market Variance

Search demand rarely distributes evenly across a state or region. Population size, legal awareness, competitive density, and institutional factors can all skew intent toward specific metros or MSAs.

I use geographic breakdowns to:

identify markets that quietly outperform state-level averages
spot areas where competition inflates CPC without proportional demand (this is a big one)
determine whether scale should come from expansion or concentration

This analysis often reveals that two cities with similar population sizes behave very differently once intent and competition are factored in — which has direct implications for budgeting, geo-prioritization, and expectations.

Regional SV Report for Fertility Clinic

From Estimates to Projections

Another example of how these estimates are used in a practical manner is shown beside to the side.

These projections were used to form a budget for Friday's Dog, a company specializing in organic pet products. At this point, the client was already signed. There was no need to upsell or make false promises. This was the math that made the most sense based on our professional expertise.

EOY performance went on to match projections almost 1:1, both in investment and performance KPIs.

To quote Hannibal of the A Team:

Extending My Approach to Complex Practice Areas

The Edge of Demand - Precision, Structure, and Judgment

The same research and evaluation principles that guide high-volume practice areas also apply to categories with more complex acquisition dynamics. The context, at both the PPC and the business development level, shapes the strategy. For example, mesothelioma drives the most expensive CPC in the PPC arena. That truth doesn't require that you run an evergreen mesothilioma campaign as the cornerstone of your paid media strategy. The clever thing to do is run a highly narrow campaign that doesn't spend a cent unless there's a near-total guarantee that the search is (1) about mesothelioma, and (2) high intent.

I feel it's important to clarify here: I'm not saying that I can always find an angle regardless of the demand (read: practice area). I am saying that I know how to actually test for viability when it comes to the complex or difficult practice areas. Where many agencies and professionals will simply write them off to save themselves the effort, or take them on regardless of odds of success, I believe the decision should be driven by the data. This process not only reveals where opportunity exists, but also where it doesn’t — which is equally valuable in planning and investment decisions.

Let's visit a personal example: work I did with a firm that deals primarily with white collar crime (WCC).

From Category to Structure

In the work I did with this firm, the goal of the research phase wasn’t to decide whether white-collar criminal defense could work in the abstract. It was to understand how demand actually expressed itself, quantifying said demand, and understanding how that demand needed to be structured to be usable.

That meant:

decomposing WCC into defensible subcategories
evaluating volume, cost, and intent at each layer
validating assumptions against geographic and enforcement trends

The resulting structure wasn’t theoretical. It was directly informed by observed search behavior, competitive realities, and real-world prosecution patterns. In other words, the campaign structure reflected how people search when they are facing these situations, rather than forcing the category into a generic legal taxonomy.

WCC Structure

Unique structure for major law firm primarily dealing with white collar criminal defense

Layering in Real-World Context

Search behavior doesn’t exist in a vacuum, especially in enforcement-driven practice areas.

For this engagement, keyword demand was cross-checked against geographic concentration and prosecution trends, including federal enforcement data and historical activity by judicial district. That context helped distinguish sustained opportunity from temporary noise and guided how campaigns were weighted across regions and subcategories.

Instead of reacting to short-term volatility, the structure was built around where cases actually originate and how they tend to move through the system. Certain subcategories of WCC were advertised regionally (SE USA), while others were advertised nationwide, with emphasis on certain cities and courthouses.

Turning Research into Actionable Boundaries

The output of this process wasn’t just a campaign map — it was a set of clear boundaries around what deserved budget, what should remain tightly controlled, and what should be excluded entirely.

Some subcategories justified meaningful investment. Others were viable only under narrow conditions. A few were eliminated before spend was ever committed.

That clarity is the point. It allows complex practice areas to be pursued deliberately, without overextending into low-return territory — and it ensures that growth decisions are driven by evidence rather than assumption.

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